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Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets

CNBC reported that polls and prediction markets underestimated the outcomes in the Wisconsin and Michigan primaries. This is the second time in just over a week that polls and prediction markets' odds were off, following a miss in the Democratic U.S. senate primary in Michigan.

Impact Score
2/10
Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:30 AM EDT
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